Market turmoil continued unabated during the first quarter in the face of the ongoing credit crisis and the selling of massive positions of a rogue trader in Europe. Although the Federal Reserve Board responded aggressively by cutting interest rates a total of 2 percentage points, the chaos spread to the municipal market as huge hedge fund liquidations drove munis to their cheapest valuations in decades relative to US Treasury bonds. Rapid deterioration of monoline insurance companies also wreaked havoc on short-term securities, leading to widespread failures in the Auction Rate Securities Market that left investors unable to exit positions.
Credit fears remained a dominant concern for investors worldwide. All of the major bond spread sectors continued to underperform Treasuries during the quarter. The yield curve steepened markedly with the differential between the 2- and 30-year Treasury bonds widening by 130 basis points during the period. Global equity markets were also sharply lower, and the dollar weakened against most major currencies.
Against this backdrop, the Fund's emphasis on higher credit-quality aided performance as a general 'flight-to-quality' drove relative valuations in the muni market. More specifically, exposure to the pre-refunded sector contributed positively to performance. In addition, an overweight stake in the Hospital sector rebounded from year-end. Overall, the portfolio's modest duration overweight and bias toward the 7- to 10-year part of the yield-curve helped performance as intermediate yields fell.
As we enter the second quarter, investor expectations are for another rate reduction from the Fed. Spread markets have begun to tighten, with buyers from the sidelines tempted by the attractive valuation levels reflected in most markets versus Treasuries. Despite uncertainty in the credit outlook, current valuations are providing an ample cushion in the view of many participants. The ultimate impact of the credit market meltdown on the real economy is likely to continue to evolve as the year moves forward. We are of the current opinion that while the contraction of liquidity will restrain future growth, the aggressive steps taken by the Fed combined with the fiscal stimulus package should ameliorate much of the negative impact.
McDonnell Investment Management
Oakbrook, IL